The end of the world is nigh. Or is it?
Could predictions of a looming collapse be nothing more than a new spin on an old fable?
There is a lot of talk at the moment about “the end”. The end of the world. The end of life on earth. The end of humanity. The end of civilization. The end of capitalism. The end of America. Is there any truth to all this talk? Should we all be worried?
It seems every generation has its stories about looming catastrophe and predictions that the world is about to end. When I was a young teenager it was nuclear holocaust. Reagan and Brezhnev were butting heads in the cold war and it seemed Mutually Assured Destruction was imminent. I recall one spring day I was sitting alone on a riverbank fishing when I heard a horrendous and terrifying roar in the distance the like of which I had never heard before. My immediate thought was that nuclear war had started and for a few moments I was frozen with terror waiting for the flashes of light and ash rain that I had been taught to expect. They never came. It turns out what I had heard was the roar of supersonic fighter jets entertaining crowds at a nearby airshow. The anticipated catastrophe turned out not to be real. But the terror I felt certainly was. And to this day it is a reminder to me of just how powerful a campaign of fear-inducing information can be on the psyche of an individual.
So I’ll admit to an underlying concern I’ve been harbouring with all the current talk about collapse: is it possible we could all just be getting swept up in a sort of fashionable apocalypticism? Could the so-called looming climate catastrophe just be the 2020’s version of the nuclear holocaust story that gripped me as a boy. Or indeed today’s version of ANY of the end-of-the-world scenarios that have gripped various parts of the populace over the past couple of millennia. Is it maybe just human nature to tell these stories? And will we get a decade or two down the track and wonder what all the fuss was about (while no doubt simultaneously finding ourselves enthralled by some new and improved apocalyptic scenario)?
Fashionable apocalypticism?
Humans have been predicting the end of the world for a very long time. For poetic reasons I really wanted to be able to write “since the beginning of time” there, but it seems that’s not really the case. In terms of human history it appears to be a relatively recent phenomenon, arising during the Common Era in concert with the development of organized religion. While there is no documentary evidence from the period to confirm this it seems likely the idea may have started with Zoroaster (somewhere in the period 1500–1000BCE). It was subsequently taken up by the Abrahamic religions, and came to be referred to by theologians as “eschatology” (from the Greek eskhatos or “last”) being that part of theology concerned with the final events of history, or the ultimate destiny of humanity. In Judaism the concept first appears in the prophecies of Isaiah (around 800BCE). In Christianity the apocalypse is foretold in the book of Revelations, written about 96CE. And in Islam it is foretold in both the Quran (609CE) and Hadith (846CE).
But the idea of an apocalypse is certainly not limited to these traditions. In China the concept seems to have first emerged during the Yellow Turban Rebellion (184–205 CE) under the Han Dynasty, and is prominent in the later Taoist Scripture The Divine Incantations from the 5th Century CE. In Norse mythology the Ragnarök (“Fate of the Gods”) / Ragnarøkkr (“Twilight of the Gods”) are described in the 13th Century Prose Edda and Poetic Edda. Buddhism, Hinduism and Jainism also all have stories about ‘beginnings’ and ‘endings’ and their own varying concepts of an apocalypse.
So the idea of apocalypse seems to be something that resonates deeply with us and which for at least two millennia has been quite central to the beliefs of much of the world’s population. Why? Part of the answer is probably fear.
Historically it seems the idea of a looming apocalypse has been a useful device to keep the populace focused on a particular religious/political agenda. Providing a single simple overwhelming external future threat is a great way to divert attention from actual current crises like poverty, exploitation, corruption and war. And if you link the predicted apocalypse to specific social groups or enemies it can be a great way to push a political agenda and promote hatred. This is the context of it’s emergence in China during the Yellow Turban Rebellion, and of the antisemitism of Christian apocalyptic predictions in the 13th Century, and of French depictions of the apocalypse featuring the English as antagonists in the 14th Century, and of Lutheran depictions featuring Catholics during the Reformation in the 16th Century.
Both psychology and neurobiology show us that humans are stimulated by fear, some of us to the point of attraction. Like all mammals we are wired for fear biologically and it has played (and continues to play) an important role in our survival. But humans have taken it a step further turning the experience of fear into an art form — quite literally in many cases. From the ancient scary stories of religion, mythology and even nursery rhymes, to today’s scary movies, scary theme park rides, and scary recreational pursuits. Fear gives us a buzz that we enjoy (consciously and/or unconsciously) and is something that many of us actually seek out. So it seems possible that the big scary story of a looming apocalypse might just be something we want to believe because underneath we are stimulated by and attracted to the fear it induces in us.
In addition to this general observation about our attraction to fear, research has suggested a whole range of specific psychological explanations for why certain individuals may be particularly drawn believe in some sort of an apocalypse, even in the absence of any evidence for it. These include: the validation of a fatalistic mindset (often seen in victims of trauma), particularly within a group of link-minded individuals; the comfort of being able to attribute doom to some larger cosmic order, and hence avoid taking personal responsibility; the reduction (somewhat paradoxically) of uncertainty and existential anxiety by affirming a particular end story (particularly in cases where an end date is predicted); and even just the therapeutic benefit of goal-oriented behaviors, such as demonstrated by “doomsday preppers”.
While there are plenty of people who still believe the ancient religious versions of the apocalypse, the modern world has provided us with a number of plausible alternative apocalyptic visions to scare our pants off: asteroids, gamma-ray bursts, solar storms, mega-eruptions, global pandemics, artificial intelligence, nuclear war and of course climate change. And there has been a huge explosion [no pun intended] of apocalyptic themed movies and television series over the past two decades. Our appetite for stories about an apocalypse seems to be insatiable.
In the context of present-day concerns about a looming catastrophe, all these things rings alarm bells for me. Because if there is one thing I don’t trust it is human belief, specifically our ability to believe that the stories we tell ourselves are true and our uncanny ability to selectively filter evidence that confirms those existing beliefs. I am at my core a skeptic, and by profession a scientist. So it takes quite a lot to convince me of anything, particularly something as large and as complex as the imminent collapse of civilization.
Hard facts
But in this particular case, sadly, I am convinced. As I stated in a previous essay:
“I do not believe that the planet is doomed, that life on earth will end, or that human’s will go extinct. The planet, and life, and humanity will continue. But I do believe that the world as we knew it is gone and that we have entered a period of rapid and catastrophic change. Catastrophic for humanity, and catastrophic for possibly the majority of species with which we share the Earth. But I use the term in the sense of its Greek origins of ‘overturning’. Yes ‘collapse’, but collapse and re-organization, not collapse and oblivion.”
My assessment is that there is overwhelming scientific evidence that we have already entered a period of rapid and catastrophic change, and that there is sufficient evidence from the collapse of past human societies to indicate that this change will almost certainly bring about the collapse of western civilization.
The evidence falls in to five main areas:
1. Critical undermining of the earth’s life support systems
Human activity has already significantly undermined the capacity of the earth to support us (and other life forms). This is evidenced by precipitous falls in: the availability of fresh water; the area and fertility of agricultural land; the area of forests, wetlands and natural habitats in general; and the populations of wild terrestrial and marine animals. We are currently in the midst of the 6th mass extinction event in the earth’s history (with an estimated 200 species going extinct every day) and mass extinction events are never a good sign for life on earth.
2. Extreme over-consumption of resources
The global human population is in what is termed ‘ecological overshoot’ — we consume more resources than our planet can sustainably provide. And this has been the case since 1970 (when the global population reached 3.7 billion). This year the current human population will use 1.75 times the resources the planet can sustainably provide, and over the past 10 years we have consumed 17 years’ supply of resources. We have been in ecological deficit for fully 50 years, and the cumulative debt is now so large it can never be repaid. This is why natural systems and animal populations are crashing all around us (point 1 above). By analogy, if we were a single household or business we would have been declared bankrupt decades ago. But this is nature, and the only answer nature has for ecological bankruptcy is death.
3. Exponential human population growth
The human population continues to grow exponentially. This year it will hit 7.8 billion people. For most people this is a meaningless number, but if you look at the graph below you get some historical context. As humans we often romanticize our view of the world, tending to remember it as it was when we were children, not as it actually is today. I find it a valuable exercise to look at the population in the year you were born and compare it to today. You can check the precise numbers here.
The best projections suggest that on current trends the population will hit 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2056.
4. Irreversible climate change
As you are no doubt aware the earth’s climate is already changing rapidly as a result of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global temperature have been climbing steadily since about 1900 and the past 10 years have been the hottest on record. Some of the best current estimates of climate scientists suggest that emissions to date may have already locked in as much as 3.8 degrees C of global warming that will unfold as catastrophic changes over the next two centuries. These estimates are much higher than the very conservative and highly political consensus reports of the IPCC that you’ve probably heard reported in the media, and they make a mockery of government targets set in the [failed] Paris climate treaty. Recent analysis of past climate modelling (since the 1970’s) against actual measured changes in climate shows that even the clunky old models were basically correct and that we continue to track on the ‘worst case scenario’ of 5–6 degrees C of eventual warming. On the whole we have utterly failed to even stabilize our greenhouse gas emissions, let alone reduce them. And while the slowing of economic activity associated with the current global pandemic has temporarily reduced emissions by a significant amount it is still actually less than what would be required to fend of dangerous climate change. The lesson here is that we actually require an even greater reduction in ‘economic activity’ that what we are currently experiencing on an ongoing basis if we are to make any meaningful difference. But our past behavior strongly suggests that in all likelihood once the pandemic is past there will be a rapid return to business-as-usual.
5. Human history and evidence from past collapsed societies
We now have considerable evidence available to us about the collapse of at least 50 previous human societies, ranging in size from small islands to global empires, with examples spanning the globe, representing a diverse range of cultures and thousands of years of human history. While there is no simple universal formula for collapse, scientific theories about how and why societies collapse are highly developed. Each of the 4 points above (essentially issues of over-population, resource depletion and rapid environmental change) were major factors in many previous collapses and are central to widely accepted theories about societal collapse. I have only discussed these 4 because they are within my realm of scientific expertise, and because frankly they are enough on their own. But there are actually many other potential contributing factors to societal collapse that are highly relevant to our current situation. Like a global pandemic. Like an energy crisis. Like a financial crisis. Like civic unrest as a result of obscene inequality.
Scientific assessments about the likelihood of the collapse of western industrial society have been mounting for around 50 years. Much like the situation with a global pandemic, it’s not really possible to predict which precise events will trigger the collapse or exactly when it will occur. But as the drivers of collapse continue to mount it becomes not so much a case of “if” but “when”.
Choose your own ending
Although it’s now almost cliché it’s worth repeating German philosopher Hegel’s famous quote:
“We learn from history that we don’t learn from history.”
We knew another global pandemic was a certainty — scientists were publicly warning us at regular intervals right up until December 2019. Yet when it eventuated in January 2020 most of us were caught woefully under-prepared. Were you prepared? Had you heard and heeded the warnings and changed anything about your own behavior in order to be better prepared when a pandemic eventuated? My guess is you probably hadn’t. And if even if you had mentally registered the possible threat you probably pushed the concern aside and just got on with business-as-usual assuming that if and when the time came somebody in the government would do something about it and you’d be ok. Don’t feel too bad. Most of us did exactly the same. And that’s precisely the problem. Depending on which country you’re living in as you read this, it might be a serious wake up call about how risky it is to push these things aside and assume that somebody else is on it and when the time comes will have your back.
Like the current pandemic, based on the science, the collapse of western civilization is now basically a certainty. Each of the four points above show that it is a physical impossibility for civilization to continue as it is. So it’s not a case of “if” but “when” and, if you like “how fast” and “how hard”. The collapse in fact may have already started. The current pandemic may prove to be the ‘black swan event’ (the term researchers use for the harbinger of a societal collapse). The point is not to despair, but to prepare. You may have no control over the unfolding of global events, but you do have control over how you live your life, the choices you make each day, and the things you invest your time and energy into. Its the things we each do today that determine what tomorrow will be like. So the onus is on each of us to do what we can to make the best future we can.
Footnote
Many will find the information in this essay deeply challenging and disturbing. You’re not alone. It’s hard to stomach and hard to face, and it brings up a range of very uncomfortable emotions like anger, anxiety, depression, despair and grief. Don’t shut down and cut yourself off from those emotions, but rather sit with them gently and let yourself feel them. There are literally millions of people around the world at the moment working through these same issues, having these same feelings, and struggling to find a way forward. I’ve written a little about my own journey in these recent essays:
The Future Makers: Bonobos, the Titanic and the Fruit Tree that Changed My Life.
Hedonism for Our Times: Living Beautifully in the Anthropocene
There are many helpful groups and sources of information online. A great starting point is the Facebook group Positive Deep Adaptation whose members openly discuss these issues in constructive ways and share resources that they have found helped them in their respective journeys.
